‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Stock.

People queue up to buy cooking gas cylinders for domestic use in an Indian city
People queue up to buy LPG tanks for home cooking in a major Indian city.

The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's households.

As military actions on Iran impede energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are switching to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a western metro, media reports say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their fuel reserves have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

A closed restaurant shutter in an Indian city
A food joint in a southern city which has shut down due to a shortage of LPG.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the officials insists there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and authorities say stocks are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.

Roughly a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now effectively closed by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"A degree of anxious stocking and stockpiling has been sparked by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

An oil tanker at sea representing imports
India imports up to most of the oil it uses, leaving it significantly susceptible to interruptions in international markets.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of panic buying.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next gas canister.

Shaun Dalton
Shaun Dalton

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