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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.