🔗 Share this article Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader. A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely. That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely. That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”